Beware the Blessed St. Augustin

Photo from jrandallc's flickr photostream.

It really hurts me to write this.

I followed the University of Texas at Austin basketball team closely this year, and I am most definitely a fan. The team as a whole exceeded expectations in light of losing some guy named Durant, and the members of the team are high-character, high-talent guys who play smart and play together. Undoubtedly, the best player on the team this year was D.J. Augustin, and he really was something special for Texas.

But Augustin really, really, really worries me as an NBA prospect.

Unfortunately, it's not the standard recycled criticisms of Augustin's game. Well, it kind of is, but it's more than that.

A lot of what Augustin does begs to be compared to Steve Nash, and to an extent that makes sense (D.J. attended Nash's camps for NCAA PGs). He does the same "probing of the defense" that Nash does, dribbling through the lane, down the baseline, or around the top of the key without ever picking up his dribble. He passes well in transition, and even has Nash's running fadeaway to elude defenders. On top of that, he's definitely a leader on the floor, and very poised.

But unfortunately for Augustin, that's where the similarities end. Despite what the stats tell you, I've always thought Augustin was a very overrated passer. A lot of his assists come in transition or to a shooter that happens to be open; I cannot recall many times over the past season where he actually made the play with the pass (which is something that is very important for an NBA point guard). That's also why Augustin won't be able to have as much offensive success as Nash -- not only does Nash's passing create for his teammates, but it also creates for himself. Nash is able to create space for his shot because he's always a threat to make a great pass, or to drive to the basket to draw defenders or finish for himself. But that's not really the problem, no one expects Augustin to be Nash; but because Augustin isn't nearly as good at passing, shooting, or being 6'3'' as Nash is, there are going to be some problems.

According to my own 'calculations,' about half of Augustin's points come off of "What the hell?!" shots: wacky layups in heavy traffic, base-line leaners, and fadeaways. In the college game, that was all well and good, and some may even point to these baskets as evidence that he can score in any situation over almost any defender. I don't buy it; I think he'll have a lot more trouble with these WTF shots in the NBA than he did against smaller, defensively inferior competition (just look at how he performed against the NBA-sized Derrick Rose). His spot-up jumper shouldn't be affected by the move the the NBA and he should be able to adjust to the farther three point line -- but that's never been the concern with Augustin. He's a good shooter and a good scorer, it's just hard for 5'10'' scorers to succeed in the NBA (not that it's impossible, it's just damn difficult).

Plus, I don't know whether this was a flaw in Texas Coach Rick Barnes' offense or in Augustin's play, but it really seems like he overdribbles. In the 35-second college shot clock, some Texas possessions would consist of 20-25 seconds of Augustin dribbling around trying to find something. I know I already told you that he probes the D like Nash, but when you do that for five seconds too long and can't really create good looks for your teammates consistently, it just creates problems for your team's half-court offense.

I want to make some grand, bold-emphasized statement that you can never, ever quote me on under any circumstances, along the lines of:

"D.J. Augustin will never be a good NBA point guard."

...but to be honest, I'm scared. I'm scared that after proving so many people wrong this year with the Longhorns, that I'll be added to the list. I'm scared that the trademark resiliency that Texas had this year (with Augustin leading the charge more often than not) will carry over and translate to the NBA in a way I never could have imagined. But basically, I'm scared that a point guard that's too small and not expected to succeed will be better than anyone could have thought possible.

Of course, that's probably just my insecurities about making my stance on a player's potential public and easily accessible. So instead, I'm going to settle on a safe middle-ground: D.J. Augustin most likely projects in my mind as a backup point guard on any number of teams, or as a starting point guard if he's surrounded by enough talent and plays in an uptempo offense. He's most often compared to Jameer Nelson, but that's kind of an odd comparison to me because I think Jameer plays a lot more wrecklessly than D.J. does, and so I would project him as a poor man's version of Damon Stoudamire.

I think he should still be a lottery pick, but if any team takes him before #11 (Pacers) they're expecting too much. Plus, I think the Pacers could be a good fit for him, as well as the Kings at #12. But if the Knicks (#6), Clippers (#7), or Bucks (#8) take Augustin, I think they'll be disappointed.