The Battle Before the Battle

Photo from USA Today.

This offseason we're blessed with plenty to talk about: the draft will provide constant discussion before and after June 26th. The Finals are entertaining, competitive, and full of nostalgia. Mr. Donaghy has likely stirred up all sorts of trouble in NBA officiating, and I don't expect to hear the end of that anytime soon. Free agency and trade rumors will rule the day as always. But the real spotlight of the summer is shining on Jerry Colangelo, Coach K, and USA Basketball. The team that took no prisoners last summer is looking to regain the Olympic dominance that America surrendered in Athens in 2004. Last summer was most definitely an accomplishment, as the closest game was a 15-point "nail-biter" against Argentina.

But before Team USA even touches the hardwood in Beijing, Jerry Colangelo and Mike Krzyzewski have their toughest challenge to date: picking the 12-man roster that will man up against the world's finest (well, kind of). Here is the full Team USA roster, which I've split up by position:

Point guards (7):
Gilbert Arenas
Chauncey Billups
Deron Williams
Chris Paul
Luke Ridnour
Jason Kidd
Kirk Hinrich

Shooting guards (5):
Kobe Bryant
Joe Johnson
Michael Redd
J.J. Redick
Dwyane Wade

Small forwards (11):
Bruce Bowen
Shane Battier
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
LeBron James
Shawn Marion
Mike Miller
Tayshaun Prince
Paul Pierce
Adam Morrison
Lamar Odom

Power forwards (5):
Elton Brand
Antawn Jamison
Nick Collison
Carlos Boozer
Chris Bosh

Centers (5):
Dwight Howard
Brad Miller
Greg Oden
Amare Stoudemire
Tyson Chandler

As you can see, the glut of the roster is at the small forward spot, but most of those players can play either shooting guard or power forward as well. But we can trim the roster down a bit, as some of these players don't have much of a chance of making the team. Here are the players that are definite long-shots to make the final roster:

Kirk Hinrich - Hinrich's subpar play this season will not be promising, and the ridiculous talent at point guard doesn't help his case either. Barring substantial injuries to at least two of the major candidates for point guard, Hinrich doesn't have a shot at making the roster.

Luke Ridnour - See the above comments; Ridnour's production and confidence have dropped off significantly, and point guard is going to be the most competitive position on the roster, despite the high number of swingmen.

JJ Redick - J.J hasn't been able to crack the rotation in Orlando, and probably won't be able to crack the roster for Team USA. Redick has plenty of time to make the roster in the future, but isn't good enough right now.

Lamar Odom - Odom is a good player, but the rest of the prospective small forwards and power forwards are either very good players or great players. If the roster size were larger than 12 Odom may have a shot, but right now he's just out-classed by the incredible group Colangelo has put together.

Adam Morrison - Morrison is coming off missing the 07-08 NBA season due to injury, and there is little to report on the status of his rehab. Even a fully healthy Morrison would have a lot of trouble even being on the short list of mentionables for Team USA.

Paul Pierce - Paul Pierce is probably good enough to make the roster, but I look for him to spend some time nursing that injured knee in the off-season. The Truth has been a little slow since Game 2 of the Finals, and I don't think he'll be ready to go for even more rigorous practice and competition in the Olympics.

Nick Collison - Collison is a decent player, but I think was put on the roster as more of a back-up, in case all the desired bigmen were otherwise injured or occupied, or in case Collison blossomed into something spectacular. The stars haven't aligned for Nick at this point, but he'll likely provide a solid practice opponent for USA bigs.

Greg Oden - Oden's rehabilitaiton is going well, but I don't see Gode or the Blazers liking the idea of participating in the Olympics very much. Plus, with Dwight Howard and Tyson Chandler in shape and in rhythm going into the summer, the squad already has 2 shot blocking big men who can run the floor. Maybe next time, Greg.

Brad Miller - Would've been a long shot anyway, Miller is just not as good as his intra-squad competition.

Which means that out of the original 33-man roster, 24 remain. Last summer's squad (according to my position designations) consisted of three point guards, two shooting guards, four small forwards (depending on where you put Mike Miller), no power forwards, and three centers. Adding to the drama of the selection process is the recent proclamation that there will be no tryout process. What impact does this have on the selections? Well, it makes it incredibly difficult for Elton Brand and Gilbert Arenas to make the roster because of their injuries. It also means that anyone not on last year's roster who isn't named Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh is going to really have to push to make their way onto this year's squad. The no-tryout process is more friendly to those who succeeded for America last summer, although there are certainly some possible candidates who took their games to another level this season. But that comes later, first are the locks from last summer's team:

LeBron James - It's a no-brainer, LeBron is too good and too dominant to leave off the team.

Kobe Bryant - Kobe showed he's ready to lock down for Team USA, and everyone knows he wants to be like Mike (I'm not gonna sing).

Carmelo Anthony - Thugmelo could get 10 DUIs between now and Beijing and still be on the roster. Say what you want about him and the Nuggets, but he's unusually effective in the international game.

Jason Kidd - There's a lot of credit being shoveled Kidd's way for USA's resurrection, and perhaps rightfully so. Even if he can't make it work in Dallas, if you surround Kidd with scorers and leapers like Coach K can you've got one of the most lethal weapons in basketball.

Dwight Howard - The man-child is stronger, bigger, faster, and more athletic than almost anyone who tries to guard him. Dwight has shown a lot of improvement since last summer, where he was already a bit of a force. He also provides the team with incredible rebounding and shot blocking.So that leaves 7 open spots for 19 players. Let's break it down.

Point guards (4):
Gilbert Arenas
Chauncey Billups
Deron Williams
Chris Paul

Shooting guards (3):
Joe Johnson
Michael Redd
Dwyane Wade

Small forwards (6):
Bruce Bowen
Shane Battier
Kevin Durant
Shawn Marion
Mike Miller
Tayshaun Prince

Power forwards (4):
Elton Brand
Antawn Jamison
Carlos Boozer
Chris Bosh

Centers (2):
Amare Stoudemire
Tyson Chandler

The team definitely needs a backup point guard, and Chris Paul is a no-brainer. Hell, he may even start. He was at least the second best player in the NBA this season and can create pressure on both ends of the floor.

Michael Redd is the dead-eye shooter that can help this team be very successful, and he quietly put up a very solid season for the dreadful Bucks. Look for Redd to reprise his role as Kobe's backup.

I'd look for Joe Johnson to take Mike Miller's place. Johnson is just as good (if not better) at shooting from midrange and three, and showed during the playoffs that he can be outright dominant even against the most stingy of defensive opponents. Also, Miller's sole value is in his shooting, and he wasn't able to adjust well to the international three point line. Johnson can hit the J or be a playmaker for this team, which can be very valuable in sets or in the open court.

Stoudemire would be an obvious choice to make the squad, but it seems as though he's slightly disinterested, which is a turnoff to Colangelo. In his stead, Carlos Boozer seems to be the favorite to grab a spot at forward which is fairly reasonable. Boozer's ability to shoot from the extended free throw line can open up the lane for slashers, and his offensive rebounding could be a big help to this team. He could even provide some spot duty at center, although not for long spells. Seems like Carlos Boozer is going to nab Amare's spot.

Team USA was able to get by last year with three big men and a few small forwards who could also play the 4 (namely, Tayshaun and LeBron). The strategy seems to work well, but I get the feeling that Colangelo has all but guaranteed a spot to Chris Bosh, who is a more natural 4 that can also play the 5, and is one of the team's centerpieces.

So far that includes Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Michael Redd, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire. Two roster spots remain, and there are a lot of very capable players remaining:

Point guards (3):
Gilbert Arenas
Chauncey Billups
Deron Williams

Shooting guards (1):
Dwyane Wade

Small forwards (6):
Bruce Bowen
Shane Battier
Kevin Durant
Shawn Marion
Mike Miller
Tayshaun Prince

Power forwards (3):
Elton Brand
Antawn Jamison
Carlos Boozer

Centers (1):
Tyson Chandler

One of these spots is really easy, and the other is incredibly difficult. Dwyane Wade, barring any setbacks on the rehabilitation trail, will make the roster. He's a captain and a damn good player, and whether this team needs him or not he will be there.

But well, that means the roster now has four shooting guards. Is this really a problem? No, because Redd can play 2-3, Johnson can play 1-3, Wade can play 1-2, and Kobe can play 2-3. Position on the wings doesn't matter as much as roles do, and you have to wonder what this team really needs. Do you go with a third point guard? Deron Williams is probably the best bet, as he's a better passer than Gil (and healthier), and a better scorer and passer than Billups. Do you go with another big man? Tyson Chandler is still a very capable basketball players, and a four-man rotation at the 4 and 5 could be deadly for undersized opponents. Or maybe you go with a better shooting big man who can still work down low, like Boozer or Brand. But realistically, I think this is a three-man race between Deron Williams, Tayshaun Prince, and Antawn Jamison.

What?!

I know, bare with me. It may seem farfetched, but there's a reason why Deron and Tayshaun made last year's squad, and that's because they're both damn good. Deron Williams can create the best three-headed point guard the world has ever seen. Tayshaun Prince gives outside shooting, great on-ball defense, and some shot blocking. Antawn Jamison brings a dynamic scoring game and a knack for rebounding, plus the ability to play the 4. But who wins out? I'm going with the obvious, Deron Williams. Part of me wants to say Prince, but Williams' talent level, passing, and shooting are just too overwhelming - look at his stats from the 2007 Tournament of the Americas. Williams averaged just as many assists as the ever-valuable Jason Kidd while also shooting 62% from the field and 50% from three. The three-headed point guard system worked very well for the Americans in the Tournament of the Americas, with Williams, Kidd, and Billups each playing about 15 minutes per game. Substitute Billups for Chris Paul and you've got a new and improved rotation that's sure to give opponents fits. Of course, if Dwyane Wade isn't healing according to schedule after all it could shake-up the entire roster. Woe is me. But for now, the Team USA roster should be projected to look like this:

G Kobe Bryant
G Jason Kidd
G Chris Paul
G Deron Williams
G-F Michael Redd
G-F Joe Johnson
G Dwyane Wade
F LeBron James
F Carmelo Anthony
F-C Chris Bosh
F-C Carlos Boozer
F-C Dwight Howard

Added from 2007: Chris Paul, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh. Removed from 2007: Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler, Mike Miller, Tayshaun Prince.

Team USA officials have to be giddy about the fact that Wade and Bosh will be rejoining the roster, but it's disappointing that players like Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion (and even a rumored LeBron James) have become disinterested with the process. It won't be difficult to keep players interested for the Olympics, but credit the minds of Team USA for bringing in lots of young talent for both the senior national team and the practice team. Due to the structure and focus we now see from our squad from top to bottom, it would take a breakdown of epic proportions to topple the Americans in the forseeable future.