NBA blogging that never lives up to its potential.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Not Quite What He Imagined



Photo from Getty Images/Jesse D. Garrabrant.


Poised to make what many deemed a cakewalk of a playoff run, this cannot be what Kevin Garnett had imagined. A Celtics team that showed a lot of heart and intensity (sometimes too much) during the regular season has yet to win a game on the road.

...what?!

They won 66 games. They led and still lead the league in defensive efficiency. But in the part of the playoffs that best measures a team's mettle and intangible toughness, they are 0-5 against two teams deemed inferior.

Note: I am not going to say a word about Doc Rivers.

This could be for a variety of reasons. They say that over the course of a seven game series, an opposing team has every opportunity to expose and exploit your weaknesses. The Celtics biggest weakness at the moment, whether from mental fatigue, a simple lack of energy, or other unknown factor, is their complete inability to win on the road. This is not an overreaction based on two games; this observation is over two series thus far against the eight-seeded Hawks (who, bad match-up or not, should not have won three games in the series at home or anywhere else) and against a Cavs team that doesn't play anything close to an efficient offense, while also having its best player limited on that end.

So are we finally seeing a chink in the armor for Boston? Is this the weakness that everyone said would be apparent but never quite showed? On the contrary: the Celtics have glaring weaknesses at the moment that are becoming more than apparent when they go on the road:
  1. Rajon Rondo - Rondo has gone from "I knew he could do it all along!" surprise to offensive liability. He's gone from 49% shooting during the regular season to 40% against the Cavs, not to mention 3 turnovers per in only 27 minutes. But the numbers don't even do him justice; Rondo is getting some good looks at times either on drives or midrange jumpers that he's not converting, meaning his defender is able to cheat off of him and help out against the Big three, especially...
  2. Ray Allen - He has never been a good defender, but Joe Johnson just made him look foolish. On top of that, he can't even perform on offense: he's shooting 20% from beyond the arc on the series and let's not forget the 0-point 4-turnover dynamo of a performance in Game 1. I know it would probably rattle Ray a bit, but how much would it change this team to start James Posey? I know Posey is useful off the bench for his D on LeBron, but he's at least earning his time on the floor by playing hard. Allen is proving his critics right with his impeccable ability to drift in and out of the offense at times; sure, he'll be open to the three if you throw it out to him, but one of the reasons why many don't consider Allen to be a true superstar and never have is because he doesn't do the other things. He can't lock down an opposing 2-guard, he doesn't go in for the rebound, and he's really not that great of a passer. Although in Seattle he could shoulder the load and be "that guy" for his team, sometimes with the Celtics he resorts to being a spot-up shooter, and the Celtics need more from him right now.
  3. Kendrick Perkins - Is it a coincidence that the two Celtics starters considered to be problematic heading into this season are on this list? Like Rondo, Perk's FG% and TOs are the biggest concerns; his percentage is down to 43% from 62% and his turnovers have swelled to 2.25 a game. Again, not mentioning the fact that he's only playing 25 minutes. Still, he's already shown he can't really guard Big Z all that well. Perk's having trouble covering the pick-and-pop between LeBron and Ilgauskas, resulting in more than a few open fifteen footers. Don't get me wrong, the pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop is a particularly difficult play to guard in the NBA, especially when LeBron is involved. But just thinking about the fact that Perk is having trouble keeping up with the foot speed of Zydrunas Ilgauskas has to have more than a few Bostonians worried (What happens when he has to guard Sheed? Or Pau?).

For now, you can credit the natural progression of a four-game sequence, Varejao's defense, home court advantage or whatever else you want to deem the red herring. Whatever the culprit, the Celtics need to win two of the next three against LeBron James, who you know is still pained by the fact that (aside from the fourth quarter of Game 4) he hasn't had a breakout game in this series. It has to be worrying that LeBron has yet to shoot over 50% or shot consistent dominance, but the series is still tied up. Supposing Boston wins though, they will be rewarded by likely facing off against the rolling Pistons, and finally, whatever beast emerges out West. Ray Allen will find his shot; all great shooters do. The keys to Boston's success throughout the rest of the post-season lie with Ray being able to at least play passable defense, along with Perk and Rondo making their open shots. So far, Cassell has had to cover for Rondo during critical stretches (and that's saying something...even he's not playing well), and KG has had to slide over to center at times he probably shouldn't have to. So far the stars have aligned for the C's in terms of winning all of their home games, but that can only last for so long. The road from here on out only gets tougher, and they will lose their home court advantage to a team that steals one in the Garden. Then and only then will we see these Celtics' true colors: do they bleed green and white, never back down, and deserve the attached "League of Clutch" moniker? Or is this a talented team that can't get it done and actually belongs, as my friend Blake likes to say about Kevin Garnett in particular, to the "League of Choke"?

I hope you didn't expect me to answer that question.

4 comments:

robbz18 said...

The Cavs are rolling, and it wouldnt be surprising to see the Cavs take this series. They faced a superior (to the Celtics) Pistons team last year and vanquished them in 5. Its not a stretch to say it could happen again. I hope it does.

Anonymous said...

I think you're crazy if you're blaming Rondo for their struggles. He's been one of the bright spots for Boston. Lots of people are saying he's been the third best player for Boston, but I would argue that he's actually been their second best player in the playoffs.

Take a look at their playoffs stats if you don't believe me: Pierce scores more points and has a small edge in rebounds, but Rondo is ahead of him in every other category, including FG%, FT%, and 3P%, along with fewer TO's, more steals, and more assists. Not to mention, he's also been their second best defender, behind only Garnett. The only bad thing about Rondo is the fact that he's not getting as many minutes as he deserves!

I think Boston's real problem has been that they are too defensive-minded, and their pace is too slow. They'll need to start scoring more points if they want to beat a team like the Pistons, who can dominate on both ends of the court. A lot of this can be blamed on Doc Rivers.

khajatiger said...

God all I can say is that it really looks like the stars have alligned for my Pistons to at least win the east!!! At the beginning of the playoffs just like everybody else I really thought it would be Pistons and C's going seven games, but now with the C's going 0-6 on the road I really don't see them winning in Detroit and we know that Detroit can steal at least one game in Boston, meanning that that series could only last 5 or 6 games. As for Cleveland if we have to play them again I know that Cleveland can't beat us, they haven't played the best ball since the trade and the Pistons seemed to figure out what to do on LeBron in that 3rd game of the regular season. Add on that Gibson won't be playing and that series seriously could be over in 5!!!!
Chauncy will abuse Rondo or Delonte!! Rip and Ray is a toss-up. We know that Tay can hang with Paul, and we also know that with a nice double we can limit LeBron! As for Sheed and KG yet another toss-up also!!! All in all it really looks like Detroit got the kick in the A$$ that they needed in the first round and it's been lights out since, even with Chauncy in a suit for 2 games and out for most of the 3rd game as we all know!!!

Rob Mahoney said...

Anon: A lot of times, I would agree with you - against the Hawks and in the regular season, Rondo was quite good. But against the Cavs, he really has been less than stellar (barring his explosion in Game 5).

kha: I wouldn't buy your Finals ticket yet, but it certainly looks to be an interesting ECF...