Dallas Mavericks: Present and Future

These are truly dark days for the Dallas Mavericks. You know the facts: in 05-06 they were the Western Conference Champions (and to mimic Mr. Al Gore, the "next" NBA Champions). In 06-07 they posted the sixth best regular season record of all-time and had the league's MVP. Now, these same Mavs are struggling to hold on to the seventh seed in a tough (understatement) playoff race out West. What does this mean? Where is this team going? If the Mavs make the playoffs, what happens next? And what if they don't? All answered in due time, my friend.

What does it mean?
The Mavs are simply not themselves. Blame it on Dirk Nowitzki, blame it on Jason Kidd (as many have), blame it on Avery Johnson, or blame it on Mark Cuban, but this Mavericks team just doesn't play with that same gusto that had them as one of the elite teams in the league in years past. Avery Johnson has shown himself to be a good enough coach in this league, but his coaching style should not go unquestioned. Upon Jason Terry's arrival, The General wanted to turn him into a pass-first point guard. The same could be said of Devin Harris. He wanted to turn lead-by-example superstar Dirk Nowitzki into a non-three point shooting vocal leader, a good passer, a capable defender, and a premier post player. He wanted to turn what was once a "shoot-first-ask-questions-later" outfit into the San Antonio Spurs. Now, make no mistake -- Avery has succeeded on some of these established goals (Namely those involving Dirk, who is now a capable defender, posting a career high in assists, and doing everything possible to accept that leadership role), but is it possible that his desire to change the innate nature of everything around him has worn out its welcome? That is the question that needs to be asked at this particular juncture, no disrespect to Avery. Word from inside the organization and the locker room say that the team's chemistry is good, but what really needs to be established is confidence. I know how dreadfully unrevolutionary this sounds, but how else could one account for the terrible events surrounding such a talented and promising team? In their current state, I doubt anyone would have them pencilled in for advancing very far into the post-season, if at all. Perhaps they need to miss the playoffs in order to start next season with a sense of urgency and a chip on their shoulder (or maybe we'll just get a repeat of 06-07, but that's neither here nor there).

What happens if the Mavs make the playoffs?
The Mavericks would likely play one of the following teams in the playoffs: New Orleans, San Antonio, Houston, or Los Angeles. In order from most favorable to least favorable:

1. Houston Rockets
2. New Orleans Hornets
3. San Antonio Spurs
4. Los Angeles Lakers

It still feels strange to me to rank the new and improved Lakers over the Spurs, but I do it for one simple reason: Kobe is just too good against the Mavericks. I can't even begin to tell you how many times he has torched and tortured this team at both ends of the floor, and it would behoove the Mavericks to avoid him at all costs.

That being said, the Spurs would be a difficult out. This team was supposedly built to beat the Spurs, but without the depth at center that Desagana Diop provided and the quickness at point guard that Devin Harris solidified, it would have to seem unlikely.

The Hornets are filled with talented players, but ones that lack playoff experience and have a clear weakness: everything comes and goes with Chris Paul. If you take Chris Paul out of the game, you take the Hornets out of the game. David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Tyson Chandler are all very talented and capable players, but lack the ability to reliably access their own offensive games. David West and Peja function best as spot up jump-shooters, and a majority of Tyson Chandler's offense relies on deft passing and offensive rebounds. Now, knowing a weakness and exploiting it are two different things, and this isn't saying that the Mavericks would be able to stop Chris Paul (I fear it's simply not possible). That being said, you have to like their chances against this Hornets team rather than the Spurs or Lakers.

That leaves the Rockets as the most favorable among the four likely match-ups that the Mavericks might encounter in the first round of the playoffs. Now that the absolutely torrid 22-win streak is over, it would only be natural to assume that the Rockets (without Yao) may have peaked a little too early. With the presence of Yao Ming in the line-up, this would be a different series. If Jeff Van Gundy was still Houston's coach, this would be a different series. But even with all that has transpired, even with all of the Mavericks' recent woes, I would still have to give the edge to Dallas. This has nothing to do with "not giving the Rockets their props" or being a "Rockets-hater," I just don't think that this Rockets team can match-up with Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard effectively. Shane Battier is a tremendous player and a wonderful defender, but he can't guard both at once. That leaves either Tracy McGrady or Carl Landry to defend one of the two, and I'm simply not buying it. If Jason Terry catches fire, I don't believe in Rafer Alston's ability to stop him. For such a great defensive team, I just don't think that the match-ups are in the Rockets' favor against the Mavs.

...and that's just the first round. As far as advancing beyond that point, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

What happens if the Mavs don't make the playoffs?
There are only two potential benefits to the Mavericks not making the playoffs (but hey, that's two benefits that most teams don't have under the circumstances): inspiring next season's run, and securing a lottery pick.

The Mavericks 2008 first rounder was included in the Jason Kidd deal, but under a scenario that no reasonable basketball fan could've predicted would come into play: lottery protection. Meaning if the Mavs do not make the playoffs, they retain their draft choice (which by definition would have to lie somewhere between 1 and 14, likely towards the tail end of that spectrum). Otherwise, it belongs to New Jersey to use as they wish.

As it stands, here are some realistic options for the Mavs in the 11-14 range of the draft:

Roy Hibbert, 7'2'' Center from Georgetown (Senior)
Hibbert's draft stock has dropped significantly in the span of the last two years, mostly due to his lack of improvement. The biggest concerns are his lack of a go-to offensive game and fairly consistent foul troubles. Then you ask yourself: what does this give the Mavs that they don’t already have? Dampier can at least take up space in the paint, and with those questioning Hibbert’s athleticism, does this draft choice really add anything? Hibbert can provide depth at what is possibly the toughest void to fill in the NBA: the true center. Adding a legit 7-footer is nothing to scoff at, especially one who can be a defensive force and shot-blocking presence when motivated. Hibbert's use to Dallas could be nullified however, if Dallas can find an affordable back-up center (such as signing former Maverick Desagana Diop, an unrestricted free agent sent to New Jersey in the Kidd deal).

Darren Collison, 6'1'' Point Guard from UCLA (Junior)
Collison can provide a back-up point guard with some upside for the moment, and an eventual starter once he rounds into NBA form. Collison has all the tools necessary to be a legit NBA defender and scorer, and has shown to be at least an average playmaker. He may not be a stud point guard prospect like Memphis' Derrick Rose, but he's definitely a solid alternative. Jason Kidd won't last forever (and his contract expires after the 08-09 season), and the Mavericks need to plan accordingly.

D.J. Augustin, 5'11'' Point Guard from Texas (Sophmore)
Augustin's strengths lie in areas that will need to be filled with a possible Jason Kidd departure: playmaking, shooting from the point guard spot, and leadership. He would obviously be a young leader, but Augustin has shown his ability to will his team to a win through passing or scoring, a valuable commodity in a point guard for the new hand-check-free NBA. His size is an issue (a pretty big one, actually), as is his ability to play defense on NBA caliber 1's, but so far Augustin has shown a domination of the college game in the face of taller and longer defenders. Additionally, Augustin's ability to run the pick-and-roll to perfection would be a great compliment to Dirk's pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop game.

Brandon Rush, 6'6'' Shooting Guard from Kansas (Junior)
This pick would be a bit of a stretch considering draft position, but if the Mavs were convinced that Rush was their man and that they could obtain him at a lower draft spot, they may be able to net a great prospect at the 2 in addition to another player via trade. If the Mavs traded down to get Rush, I can't envision them being disappointed. Although some question his ability to fully recover from ACL surgery, Rush has already demonstrated a return to his quick self: not only a great shooter from the outside who is capable of play-making at the 2, but also a very capable defender at one of the toughest positions to guard at the NBA. Looking at the other shooting guards on the Mavericks roster (Jerry Stackhouse, Eddie Jones, Antoine Wright, and Jason Terry), the Mavericks may need another two man in the fight against father time.

That's not to say that there aren't other helpful options in the draft, but these were my initial thoughts of impact players who could play a part in the Mavs future. None of these players screams future NBA star, but could they play a role on this team? Certainly.

Whether the make it into the playoffs or not, I can't imagine anyone predicted the Mavericks season would unfold like this, Jason Kidd or not. If they can somehow patch together their immense talent and potential, they could be a legitimate contender in the West. But that may involve retooling the isolation-heavy offense entirely for Jason Kidd, a move which may prove dangerous for a team to do in the name of a 35-year-old point guard who may only be with the team for one more season. That being said, GM Donnie Nelson, Avery Johnson, Dirk Nowitzki, and Jason Kidd are some of the best in the biz, and you have to anticipate them getting this team together sometime...right?